DISQUS

huh? · 3 years ago

What Primary What primary did Hillman have?? The answer is none.  A more credible explanation may be the fact that Northeastern Junior College is located in Sterling.

flyspyguy · 3 years ago

Yeah Andrew, Usually you're pretty solid, but I think you should have split this one up into a couple or even a few pieces.  It would have helped make each section more coherent and I don't think the end would have lagged so badly.  Didn't you confuse yourself even with that last bit about Hillman being in a bitter primary with Beauprez?

Anyways, keep up the good work.

Wendy Norris · 3 years ago

Sedgwick County as bellwether? It's an interesting place for political watchers.

Marilyn Musgrave won the county in this last go-around with 68 percent of the vote and 60 percent in her 2004 match up with Stan Matsunaka.

But Sedgwick County voters also voted to approve Referenda C & D by 58 and 56 percent, respectively. That's a higher percentage than so-called liberal Larimer County.

I'm more inclined to believe that rural residents are often more persuaded by straightforward politicians, regardless of party affiliation, who communicate with them in a clear "what's in it for the voter" message.

That would explain Ritter's win - who articulated his positions far better than Beauprez - and Salazar's loss, who too often can't talk his way out of a wet paper bag.

greenchiledem · 3 years ago

Tourism counties? Those of us who live in the 'tourism' county of Eagle don't consider ourselves as 'long being competitive' nor more urban. I think you could make the argument that Eagle has a more educated population, but it is still a very conservative area. Yes, we have had two great election cycles, in 2004 and 2006. But, we fielded the better candidates locally and that will always trump our minority registration. The same is true for Garfield, which has one pocket, Carbondale, that can be considered progressive. I appreciate your effort, but I think you're reaching conclusions. 2004 was the first glimpse of purple in most of these counties, except for Pitkin. Until we see more wins, we remain a very competitive and lean- conservative county. 

P.S. Dan Gibbs had a big win here and all the counties in the 56th - Lake, Eagle, Summit. A good example of a much better candidate.

Andrew Oh-Willeke · 3 years ago

Corrected. I got muddled on the whole Holtzman v. Hillman thing. 

Andrew Oh-Willeke · 3 years ago

Yup. Fixed the Hillman/Holtzman thing. I considered the multiple stories thing, but it would have been disrupted by T-Day, and a number of races like the Senate race pickups, seem to fit in multiple counties.

Still concerns duly noted.

Andrew Oh-Willeke · 3 years ago

Flukes happen. It could have been that a Ritter advocate in the county was particularly dynamic.  People do matter. 

The problem is that people who are dynamic enough to matter are rare, and in larger places, they get drowned out by the ordinary run of mediocre supporters.  But, in a county about the size of a Denver precinct, one or two effective people can make a huge difference.

Another Dem · 3 years ago

Also over-simplifying Park County I also think you've over-simplified Park County.  It isn't really a tourism-based county.  While a lot of tourists drive through Park Cy., it is not their destination.  The vast majority of Park County's residents live up in the NE corner of the county, which is much more exurban in feel.  Park is more like far Southern JeffCo in that respect than it is like Summit or even Chaffee.

Andrew Oh-Willeke · 3 years ago

I'll stand by the urban characterization. Eagle county is awash in multifamily and small lot housing, has a much higher on season population than its census numbers would suggest, and IIRC even has meaningful public transportation. 

Much of the county is entirely unpopulated, and the vast majority of residents live in platted lots or condominiums (the property tax definition of urban).  The percentage of the population that lives in census tracts with over 300 people per square mile, a common urban v. rural cutoff, is very high.

Also, unlike rural areas, it is not isolated from different kinds of people from the outside world.  It is the opposite of a bubble, it is a magnet for people from all over the world.  In contrast, in true rural areas, everyone has been there for generations and outsiders rarely venture in, allowing the areas to remain enclaves of the past.

Also, while Republicans have won races in mountain resort counties, it is rarely been by the truly blowout margins you have seen in places like Delta County on the Western Slope or Wasington County in the Eastern Plains.

For example, in the 2000 Presidential election the Gore-Bush numbers were:

Clear Creek 2188-2247 (59 net vote for Bush)

Eagle 6772-7165 (393 net vote for Bush)


Garfield 6087-9109 (3,122 net vote for Bush)


Gilpin 1099-1006 (93 net vote for Gore)


Grand 2308-3570 (1262 net vote for Bush)


Gunnison 3059-3128 (69 net vote for Bush)


Lake 1296-1056 (240 net vote for Gore)


Ouray 706-1279 (573 net vote for Bush)


Pitkin 4137-2565 (1572 net vote for Gore)


Routt 4208-4472 (264 net votes for for Bush)


Summit 5304-4497 (807 net votes for Gore)

Garfield and Ouray were big Bush margins, but the rest were not.

Compare this to some non-tourism rural counties (with net votes for Bush in parenthesis):

Cheyenne 209-857 (648)

Delta 3264-8372 (5106)


Kiowa 211-728 (517)


Lincoln 510-1630 (1120)


Moffat 1223-3840 (3617)


Montrose 4041-9266 (5225)


Sedgwick 384-877 (493)


Washington 477-1878 (1401)


Yuma 1082-3156 (2164)

Moffat county was as important to Bush as Garfield county, in the statewide county, even though Moffat county has far fewer people, for example.

(Naturally, none of this analysis applied to the time period before tourist resorts dominanted this region's economy).

Andrew Oh-Willeke · 3 years ago

If so it only strengthens the general thesis. Park county is too far from the New Mexico border to have that influence, and lacks the population density to be truly urban.

The thesis, given those facts, is that it would lean GOP to the extent that it is exurban, and would lean Dem to the extent that tourism influences the economy.

If both factors play significantly in Park county and the exurb factor has an edge, one would expect it to be purple with a red tinge, which it is.

Andrew Oh-Willeke · 3 years ago

Voter Registration in Eagle County this year was:

Democrat 25% (6676)

GOP 32% (8646)


Other 43%


26672 registered voters total

This is a modest lean GOP registration, but hardly the overwhelming edge you see in truly rural Colorado or Douglas County of El Paso County.

A Democrat needs roughly 60% of the "other" vote (mostly unaffiliated) to win in Eagle County.  In contrast, in many counties in Colorado, GOP voter registration is at or near 50%, making them impossible to win without essentially all of the unaffiliated vote, and some GOP cross overs.

Rural Voter · 3 years ago

Over-Simplification As a rural voter, I must admit this whole article seems like a rather rudimentary explanation of rural Colorado's vote.  It's almost like somebody trying to describe what France is like, and yet has never been outside of the United States.

To say that the New Mexico-border counties get their Democratic leanings from their long-ago relationship with Mexico and Spain is, well, odd.  Perhaps the San Luis Valley counties may have that culture, but you can't say the same for the Southeast counties, and you certainly can't say that for La Plata and Montezuma counties, which are dominated more by their Native American heritage and population, as well as heavy tourism base, than their relationship with New Mexico.

Furthermore, why isn't the same leaning true of Custer and Fremont counties?  The majority of Fremont's population lies in the formerly-Mexican area, as does all of Custer.  Furthermore, Custer is as much of a tourism area as Chaffee.  Indeed, home values in Custer greatly exceed Chaffee's, and approach the more resort-y areas.

Your analysis is interesting, but -- sorry to be blunt here -- you've just really missed the mark, and it comes off as another Denver-ite telling us rural bumpkins all we need to know about US.

Wendy Norris · 3 years ago

you're absolutely right. people do matter. I would have loved to have known who the local influentials were that advocating for Refs C&D; on the Plains.

There's also the small matter of Beauprez constantly sticking his foot in his mouth about issues that are vitally important to rural voters, like water, drilling, and bread-and-butter budget areas like schools and health care.

Maybe all Ritter had to do for those folks is not get caught on TV eating puppies for breakfast since his opponent was imploding before one's eyes.

Andrew Oh-Willeke · 3 years ago

The Census says Eagle County is 69% urban. See here at page 20.

Less than a third of the housing in the county is single family detached.

Bingo · 3 years ago

That's it Sedgwick County voting for a Dem once is not a trend.  Wendy describes it well -- in many of these counties, the difference was Bill Ritter and Bob Beauprez, not so much the ideology of a particular county.

Grand County is a perfect example.  In nearly every major way, Grand votes heavily Republican, but voted for Ritter this year.  While that supports Andrew's "tourism-based communities" theory, the history in Grand doesn't. 

As a few posters said below, this is an over-simplification.

Andrew Oh-Willeke · 3 years ago

Guilty As Charged Of Over-Simplification Short of a thousands of page treatise you can't help but oversimply.  FWIW, this analysis is considerably more nuanced than most heuristic models of political leanings in Colorado, and I know of none that are much more refined.

What I am really doing is cluster analysis.  I am trying to identify as few trends as possible that can describe the result as completely as possible.  The descriptions of the causes are as much heuristic as scientific.

No one doubts that large urban central cities lean Democratic.  Even in Colorado Springs, there is pretty strong evidence that the core urban area is much more liberal than the extensive suburbs. 

The evidence that counties with a tourism oriented economy favor Democrats more than Republicans is also a strong trend. 

The evidence that middle class suburbans are between urban areas and those areas that are more affluent suburbs or exurbs in political leanings is pretty strong.  The evidence that smaller cities act more like middle class suburbs than either rural areas or affluent suburbs is also pretty strong.

There is overwhelming evidence that a large swath of rural Southern Colorado's political culture is very different from that of the ag economy based counties on the Western Slope and Eastern Plains.

Montezuma County, by the way, notably is on my list of "ordinary rural counties" and not extension of New Mexico counties.

If you have a better heuristic explanation of why the Southern rural counties of Colorado are very different politically from the rest of truly rural Colorado, I'd love to hear it.  The political difference absolutely exists, and the evidence that this is not simply a product of individual candidates is also pretty strong.  If someone else has a better instinct as to why that is the case.  Maybe the key point is that these counties are mostly in the 3rd CD and that John Salazar has liberated people from past party identifications.

What is going on in Custer and Fremont counties?  My theory would be that they predominantly impacted by Colorado Springs ex-urb status, which has overwhelmed any other influence.

Interesting and discussion provoking is praise enough for me, in the usually dry as dust venue of political geography and statistical cluster analysis.  I've spent a fair amount of time on the Western Slope, Eastern Plains, Denver, Boulder, Colorado Springs, Greeley and Colorado's mountain towns.  I'll admit to Southern Colorado being the area I have least personal exposure to.  And, again, if you think I'm off the mark, I'd welcome your insights.  No one knows every county in Colorado like the back of his hand, but analysis is almost always written by a single person, so it is an inevitable flaw of every analyst that some intuitions aren't backed up by personal experience.

Andrew Oh-Willeke · 3 years ago

I certainly don't claim Sedwick county is a trend. It is an outlier with likely unique causes in a very small population part of a region it otherwise fits well.

Rural Voter · 3 years ago

Ironically... Ironically, the answer to the question about the San Luis Valley and SE counties is even simpler than your explanation.  (Archuleta is almost as much of a one-time wonder as Sedgwick.)

Hispanic population.

The Hispanic population came back to the Democrats in even larger percentages in 2006 than in 2004 (where Colorado Hispanics led the nation in Dem voting).  Nearly every one of the counties you discussed has a very significant Hispanic population.  Fremont and Custer, while having a Mexican heritage, don't have heavy Hispanic populations.

Andrew Oh-Willeke · 3 years ago

Hence the references to Mexican heritage. IIRC, unlike much of the Hispanic population of urban Colorado, much of the Hispanic population of Pueblo and rural Southern Colorado has roots that predate the most recent wave of Hispanic immigration to the United States.

The family of John Salazar and Ken Salazar, e.g., has lived in the region for generations, IIRC.

This distinction may also help explain the consistently high performance of Pueblo schools with large Hispanic populations on the CSAPs compared to those in other parts of the state.  In most of the state, a large Hispanic population is indicative of a large immigrant population just learning English and just learning to function in the United States.  In contrast, in Pueblo, these inferences are often invalid.

tenmiler · 3 years ago

Vail is NOT in Summit County Vail is in EAGLE County.

Summit's county seat is Breckenridge.

Andrew Oh-Willeke · 3 years ago

Corrected.

Andrew Oh-Willeke · 3 years ago

Democrats won in first ring suburbs nationwide see here.

GOTVwest · 3 years ago

How the West was won A lot of us have been building GOTV efforts on the West Slope for a long time. 

First the whole thing about Garfield being ("Aspen Influenced") is pure BS by someone who just doesn't know this valley.  Eastern Garco has been moving blue for a long time now, going back even before the Ds cracked the BOCC by electing Tresi Houpt 4 years ago and re-electing here with 57% this time.  People aren't all that fond of Aspen, 40 miles to the south and the economy is quite independent of Aspen's.  Nor would I say Ouray is "Telluride" influenced.  Try the Imogene pass run sometime and you will notice how far 30 miles is between two places.  More people probably commute to work from Montrose to Telluride than from Ouray.

What connects Eastern Garfiled County (Carbondale, Glenwood and New Castle) to the blue map is a change in values among the new arrivals.  The elections now are about clean water, environment, education, transit, managing growth and less about Rovian "values," property rights and "economic development"  People here are starting to say No to Big Box (Carbondale) and yes to things like Transit.  The Glenwood Economy is as large as Aspen's and is the anchor to one of the state's largest transit systems in RFTA. 

All five mayors in the County are Dems  or at least Dem enough to endorse the assessor candidate who pledged to tax the oil and gas companies. (John Gorman, he won)  In the last two years, Western Garfield has not responded favorably to being the "Saudia Arabia" of the Western United States.  Smoke, water contamination, disruption of wildlife hunting habitat are not to popular and GOP rule making process to expedite these events is not helping the party.

The "value vote" questions in Gafield as a whole  were close, Domestic Partners just missed carrying the county and marijuana was closer here than statewide.  Carbondale went for town owned solar energy and so on. 

Eastern Garco and Eagle and Pitkin and Summit have very similar voting histories on things like Amendment 37 (Wind power) the Tobacco tax, legalized marijuana, Domestic partnerships and Ref C.  These votes say more about us than "tourism" especially since 2nd home construction, sales and real estate are the largest and fastest growing sectors of the local economies.. 

Not just in Colorado, but throughout the west we see the educated (or over educated) towns and counties moving Blue.  Jackson Wyoming, Blaine County Idaho (Sun Valley-Ketchum), Park City Utah all moving toward affordable housing measures, transit and some limits on growth.  If the Utah congressional map is drawn fairly, there is an urban blue District in northern Utah waiting to be created.  That may yet happen if Utah is to get another seat in Congress.

As for Aspen and Poitkin, it's not news - Pitkin was one of 103 counties for George McGovern and, more than a century ago, voted 60%-40% to give women the vote.

Southern Colorado is different.  There are towns and precincts where a majority of the people tell the Census that Spanish is spoken at home and where incomes are very low.  Woind Power was not much of a popular casue down there. 

Chaffee County is going blue.  Not based on Ritter's wipe out but at the local level where grassroots efforts are strong and well organized.  Tim Glen won the BOCC seat in spite of a property rights funded attack on him for even thinking about zoning as a cure to the land development pattern of 35 acre exempt development that  is cutting the county into Ranchettes.  Chaffee also is concerned about recreational water rights, an area where the GOP is weak and where Democrats have supported local communities trying to protect a recreation based economy.

This was the first time we have seen an effective state or national campaign person full time on the West Slope.  The woman on the Dean team wroked her butt off and knew what she was doing.  Grand County voters got direct mail about Ritter and had effective call lists available.

Six years and two years and four years ago, we were sent smarmy young know it alls who had deep experience getting out the vote in presidential primary states and had little idea of what county commissioners and state reps do.  We were viewed as back water yokels with little to offer.  data base management sucked.

This year, new voters got welcome letters, moved voters got voter reg forms and doors got knocked on in places like Gunnison, salida, Manassa, Paonia and Parachute.  The state was able to help track absentee voters who had not returned ballots.  Ds and some Us got cards and calls.

If you look at the precinct results in the West, the rule applies: the closer people live together, the more likely they will vote for Ds.  Salida, Gunnison, Aspen, Glenwood, Carbondale, Avon, Basalt, Steamboat, Paonia all going deep blue or violet or whatever you want to color it.  Even Delta, where some of  the Ds were shut out without winning a single pct (Kerry, the CU Regent candidate), Gail Schwartz picked up 4 and the Ds fielded a hard working state rep candidate and actually did voter reg and door to door in the targeted pcts in Delta and Paonia where Schwartz won.

It's not so much tourism that makes a difference but new lifestyle residents.  Rs have a big registration edge in Eagle but it's now 3-0 Ds on the BOCC there and people talk about too much development, they vote for Open Space purchases and they have a large and growing transit system.  People see the Dems as protecting the quality of life they came to enjoy and the Rs as promoting more drilling, more growth, more of everything these folks fled in Urban areas.

ps

Conejos County voted for Kerry by 40 votes.