DISQUS

dugrless · 2 years ago

Where do unaffiliated voters come in? Having spent a lot of time with the CO voter file, I wonder if this isn't an artifact of the high number of unaffiliated voters in our state.  Perhaps those liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats are just registering as Unaffiliated, and thus taking themselves out of consideration for this poll.

Leslie Robinson · 2 years ago

Is There a Howard Dean Influence? Wonder how liberal Democrats were in 2003? It would be interesting to look at those figures right before the Howard Dean campaign picked up steam some four years ago. It has seemed that many Progressive Dean activists have since grabbed a stake in the state party, campaigns and have even run for office.

OK, OK, it's personal with me, but could Howard Dean as presidential candidate (an anti-war candidate, too) and then chairman of the Democratic National Committee, influenced these national Democratic poll numbers above as well? Have national party members on the whole leaned more left during the past four years?

Andrew Oh-Willeke · 2 years ago

Not likely. The poll was a random survey of voters.  The party ID was based on responses to whether the person answering was or leaned in favor of a major party, not based on actual voter registration.

The Pew numbers are probably quite similar to the recent Gallup numbers from Colorado, since the methodology is nearly the same (I didn't see the exact number you're looking for in the Pew Report).  Gallup showed Colorado 47% Democratic, 46% Republican and 7% unaffiliated with no inclination to either party.

Andrew Oh-Willeke · 2 years ago

I don't know. Pew has been doing the survey since 1987, so it should be possible to find out.

Mark Mehringer · 2 years ago

You say Colorado Dems are liberal, but... 59% of Democrats identify themselves as moderate or conservative.  A plurality of Democrats don't even identify themselves as liberal, as moderates outnumber them by 7%.

Based on these numbers, it seems that most liberals are Democrats, but most Democrats are not liberal.

peterco · 2 years ago

Voting floors It is more significant that over 60% of the Republican party could be considered conservative with the rest moderate/liberal.  It is a better explanation to why in the past elections the moderate Republicans lost nearly every primary, swinging seats to Democrats.

The floors for each party are 40% Republican and 35% Democrat.  As in, if there is a hugely popular politician versus an underfunded name filler or disaster of a campaign (in 2002, see Owens v. Heath, AG Salazar v. ???) how many will still vote for their party.

The 40% Rep floor was what Beauprez received in 2006.

BaldJim · 2 years ago

The picture is hard to interpret Colorado Republicans:

If you try to chart out the description, it sounds like Evangelical White Protestant Christians drag the Republican establishment much farther to the right than in all but five other states. However, the "other" (than evangelical white protestant Christians) conservatives are more numerous than the national average. The Pew Center's report probably gives no secure handles to gauge social vs fiscal conservatives. One can speculate that in Colorado the Evangelicals excell at political organization which controls the character of the candidates presented as Republicans on the ballot.

Colorado Democrats:

There is no statistically significant difference between the political leanings of Democrats in Colorado and Democrats in Vermont. No shit! That's what the Pew Center says, maybe. "Politically leanings" are one thing; but for damn sure the social community is another whole thing. As a native of Colorado, I traveled to Vermont one winter to check it out as a political place to live. No way Jose. The people there work hard so they can spend the winter in Florida. I asked if they considered Arizona as an alternative. Even when they knew that Arizona is in the US, they considered it too far away and dangerous.

Of course I can not construct a national survey to argue with the Pew Center. But I can tell you that comparing the political culture of Vermont with the political culture of Colorado and expecting to get a similar vote is "far out." Try asking Governor Dean MD about "altitude sickness" when he stops by to discuss the convention. It will be a problem among the delegates. Three will get you ten that he would say, "What's that?"