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Just like in 2000 and 2004, Weld will go red by a significant margin. Now cutting that margin could prove crucial to an Obama victory, as in Mesa County, but winning outright — that just ain't gonna happen.
Just an observation as a parent with two college age voters: Young voters are very tuned into the internet and national candidates are utilizing this venue much more than in past elections. Older voters have a different relationship with the internet. They still rely on newspapers, magazines, TV, and Radio for commentaries on the candidates, but the world of the internet brings video clips and personal messages right to the voter. I think the outcome of this election is going to be heavily influenced by the internet and impact it has on young voters. They are pretty much turned off by the negative ads on TV if they watch them at all. The world of politics and the way campaigns are run is changing due to the influence and capabilities of the internet.